12.1 The concept and symbolism of colour revolutions
The phenomenon of “colour revolutions” was first discussed after the events in Serbia, Georgia and Ukraine. Today, scientists are actively studying the phenomenon of “colour revolutions”, since it is with their help, that the power space is redistributed in unstable regions of the world.
The beginning of the XXI century is characterized by a bright burst of colour revolutions, which, it seemed to us, remained in the past, but, as the political palette shows, right-wing ideas will move forward with increasing force.
In the context of globalization, the world has not become more stable and predictable. On the contrary, its main characteristics were turbulence, the state of chaos and the increased potential for conflict. The most significant manifestation of the compression of the “clutches of turbulence” were the events that occurred in a number of countries in North Africa and the Middle East in 2011. The so-called “Arab revolutions” are far from an accident, especially not a spontaneous protest of “dreaming about democracy”, but a consequence of specific projects for a global reorganization of the world.
Colour revolution is a new type of political technology to change political power. Today under the colour revolutions (CR) is understood a series of mass street riots and protests of the population with the support of foreign non-governmental organizations, most often funded by the US, usually ending with a change in the political elite. The main goal is the replacement of the national elite with a pro-Western one, negatively disposed towards this country, where it happens.
In political circles, colour revolutions, as a rule, are understood as the process of changing the ruling regimes under the pressure of mass street protests and with the support of non-governmental organizations financed from abroad.
There are more “rigid” definitions of the CR. For example, the «colour revolution» is a “coup d'état”, carried out with the predominant use of non-violent political struggle by the colour movement, usually in the interests and with direct dominant participation in planning, organizing and financing by a foreign state, a group of foreign states, public or commercial organizations.
Analysing the evolution of revolutionary movements from the end of the XIX century to the beginning of the XXI century, it can be argued that the CR is a high-tech product of the globalization era that became possible only when the human community achieved a certain level of development in all spheres (science, economy, communications and other).
Another important characteristic of the CR is that it is a complex of processes imitating a socio-political revolution.
Analysis of the peculiarities of the colour revolutions’ mechanism in these countries makes it possible to draw the following conclusions about those fundamental principles of this technology of the “peaceful” seizure of political power, created by American experts, in a “victim” state by using its own citizens for this purpose.
The main element of the colour revolution technology is the conclusion by the subject of such a geopolitical game, i.e. the so-called political alliance with the ruling elite groups, hostile to the ruling regime in the country under attack, as well as providing them with all-round support in the fight against official power and related elite unification, including assistance through its own special services.
A necessary condition for this kind of revolution is the creation of the so-called parallel centre of power, formally headed by the official leaders of the political opposition, by the subject and the oppositional groups of the elite under his control in the country. Therefore, the most important direction of the subject’s activity is also the consolidation of various forces opposing the ruling regime around specially trained leaders who, at the same time, must act as political leaders of the national level. Thus, the so-called shadow power centre is being formed in the attacked country, which is in fact parallel to the official state control system, but at the same time completely under the control of the entity. The main functional task of this shadow centre of power should be direct leadership of the colour revolution course, i.e. it is the leaders of this opposition power centre that should officially become the head of this kind of revolutionary movement in the victim country.
To solve this problem, the subject and the opposition primarily use the factor of creating the so-called chaos of governance within the country. And as a result, in the victim country, the general condition of the so-called short-term managed anarchy should actually arise.
Evaluation of such a strategy for the implementation of the colour revolution also makes it possible to state that this is why the most convenient period for it is the national parliamentary or presidential elections, because during such kind of political events in the victim country, a paralysis of the state government takes place almost in a natural way.
From this point of view, the colour revolutions do not possess and do not even presuppose any new great ideas, but also just new ideas, not new even for the countries in which these revolutions are being made. Thus, the CR is unprincipled process. They do not pose a major classical revolutions goal – to change the social order and forms of ownership. They are focused on changing political leaders.
The main tools for creating control and ensure the ultimate surrender of the ruling regime to the opposition, in a chaotic country are:
1) the use for such purposes of the large-scale crisis in the political and socio-economic spheres already existing in the attacked state in a natural way under the influence of various internal and external factors.
2) Targeted initiation of crisis events in the victim country, as well as controlled by the opposition, on such a scale that the ruling regime obviously does not allow, taking into account the forces and means at its disposal, to cope and neutralize such negative processes in the country in the shortest possible time. At the same time, the subject, in order to form a deep political, socio-economic and military-political crisis within the attacked state, according to the colour revolution technology, will have a corresponding impact on such a country in four main directions at once.
The first is in the international arena. For these purposes, the subject can use, for example, methods such as limited military aggression, the imposition of international economic and other sanctions, the provision of diplomatic and information pressure, etc., against the victim country.
The second is directly inside the attacked state. The main role here is played by the so-called provocative actions, i.e., special operations, capable in their direction and the effect received, to cause a great public resonance both in the state as a whole and in certain cities and administrative regions of the victim country that are most interested in their customers. Such kind of events provoke and deepen in the society discontent with the policy of the central government and, thus, dissatisfaction with the existing political regime in the country as a whole.
Thirdly, the subject and the opposition have direct pressure, including psychological pressure, on the members of the top leadership of the attacked country, in order, first of all, to limit their ability to act freely in the struggle against political opposition during the elections, and to effectively manage the state.
Fourth, during the final stage of the election campaign, the provision of direct, hard, massive and comprehensive impact by the entity, as well as its possible allies, mainly from among other leading Western countries, and influential pro-Western international organizations (for example, the OSCE, the IMF, etc.) and both through unofficial and official channels, including international media, on the elite group in power in the victim country, so that regardless of the outcome of the citizens’ vote in elections, put it to make concessions to the opposition forces and eventually voluntarily relinquish power in their favour.
At the same time, political technologists emphasize the special significance of symbols in revolutionary events, since, firstly, influencing the subconscious, sign systems produce simple (archaic) generalized emotions (for example, rage, disgust, bliss, fear) that suppress or excite volitional actions. The main thing is that they do not stimulate purposeful activity. Accordingly, in the war, social and religious revolution, the role of semiotic systems though not defining, but highly significant, since they form the mood of the masses. Secondly, sign systems actualize social experience (personal, tribal, ethnic, confessional, class, national) and thus evokes an echo that leads to self-identification; choice; act.
Thus, the symbol becomes an identification mark, stands for associates and identifies opponents, as it were, physically consolidates the community in a specific space and time.
Table 1 – Modern symbols of colour revolutions
|
Name |
Country |
Symbol
|
|
“The Revolution of Roses” |
Georgia November 2, 2003 January 4, 2004 |
The Georgian rose was simultaneously a national flower, associated with the paintings of the outstanding artist Nik Pirosmani, and a symbol (spikes) of protection from the “invader” – Russia.
|
|
“The Revolution of Tulips” |
Kyrgyzstan February 27 - April 5, 2005; April-June 2010 |
Until the end of 2004. in the analytical structures there was a dispute about which plant (necessarily a plant) should become a symbol of ripe opposition. Specialists recommended a yellow tulip. However, Kyrgyz oppositionists rejected this idea: the yellow tulip is a symbol of separation. The result was a red colour.
|
|
“The revolution of tiles” |
Moldova April 2005 |
There was no traditional external provocative activity. Nevertheless, what occurred – occurred. There was vandalism, complete disregard and violence against the symbols of state power.
|
|
“Snow revolution” “Mutiny of hipsters” |
Russian Federation Fall 2011 – Spring 2012 |
The symbol was the “white ribbon” (according to “Lenta.ru”, the «white ribbon» was a spontaneous idea that appeared and was supported in Runet on the night of December 4 to 5. Protests had the character of “Brownian movement” and had no goal.
|
|
“Arab spring” “Rap revolution”, “Jasmine revolution”, “Twitter revolution” |
Tunisia end of 2010 – beginning of 2011 Egypt 2011 Libya 2012 |
Lotus symbolized the renewal of vitality and the return of youth. |
12.2 The main components of the colour revolutions
The material and financial support of the colour revolutions is an indispensable and one of the most important conditions for their successful conduct. The main funding sources for this are the numerous non-governmental structures of Europe and the USA, the core of which are various institutions, funds and public organizations.
According to some reports, during the Orange Revolution, Ukraine spent at least $ 60 million to promote the development of democratic reforms, in Kyrgyzstan up to $ 50 million. Annual financial assistance to Georgia from the United States is about $ 100 million.
An important direction in financing the colour revolutions continues to be the support of the activities of various non-governmental organizations, of which there are only about 40,000 people in the post-Soviet area. It is these people who take an active part in the meetings of round tables, demonstrations, rallies, pickets, other mass protests, and become organizers and leaders of the revolutionary movement.
Thus, the concept of the colour revolutions implementation is based on a high theoretical and scientific level of developments in the field of social philosophy, sociology, psychology, and social science. Its practical implementation in the countries of Eastern Europe and the former USSR republics testifies to the uniqueness of non-violent struggle methods as an effective tool for overthrowing or changing the ruling political regimes. At the same time, the maximum use of a wide arsenal of economic, psychological, social and socio-political instruments of pressure on the authorities, as a rule, leads to the achievement of the declared goals. At the same time, a rather high stereotyped nature of the technologies for implementing revolutionary changes can lead to a levelling or a significant decrease in their effectiveness.
At the same time, the rapid spread of modern information and communication technologies in the world creates favourable conditions for the activities of various experts and professional specialized structures in the search for and testing of new forms and methods of external management of socio-political processes in various countries.
Investigating the nature and technology of the colour revolutions, special attention should be paid to the so-called soft power. The authorship of the theory of soft power belongs to Professor Joseph S. Nye of the Centre for Media and Public Policy of the Kennedy School of Public Administration at the Harvard University. The main reason for soft power is that it is an attractive power. This is power based not only on persuasion or the ability to encourage people to do things with arguments, but also on assets that produce its attractiveness.
Soft power just involves working with consciousness through information, knowledge and culture. The ideals and values that America exports to the minds of more than half a million foreign students who study every year at American universities and then return to their home countries, or into the minds of Asian entrepreneurs who return home after an internship or work in Silicon Valley, are: to get to the power elite. The soft power of America is even more significant than its economic or military might be. American culture, be it low or high, penetrates everywhere with intensity, but with a new characteristic feature.
12.3 Features of the colour revolutions in the post-Soviet space
One of the important indicators of the colour revolutions was the change in the geopolitical orientation of states towards the West. It should also be noted that the colour revolutions gave impetus to the development of integration processes in the post-Soviet space. Direct and targeted financing of the colour revolutions by Western countries is difficult to prove, but educational programs aimed at changing the consciousness of the cultural core of these states, numerous programs to support democratic reforms, liberalization of the economy, development of the civil sector and youth initiatives can be considered as part of soft power, strategically justified from the point of view of long-term results. Any assistance from Western donors was not carried out without the desire of the ruling regimes themselves, speculating on the idea of democracy and promising reforms.
At the same time, some Georgian, Ukrainian and Kyrgyz experts tend to exaggerate the role of such internal factors as low level of socio-economic development, corruption, lack of freedom of speech, the domination of some regional elites and the inability to access power by others. At the same time, one must not forget that no country is able to mobilize dissatisfied people in any country, unless they are a critical mass (an active part of society ready to openly express their discontent and civil position). The opposition, deprived of financial, material support outside the state, also cannot mobilize the dissatisfied and support the protest mood in the society.
The colour revolutions have now become a variety of political projects used by foreign policy forces to replace disloyal political elite. Foreign specialists use ever more sophisticated technologies of coups, for the organization of mass protest movements using the resources of the Internet and political symbols, positively perceived by citizens at the subconscious level.
The «colour revolutions» are a new form of information warfare, and a purely forceful model of confronting them is not an option. A creative approach can be found in the following: active work with youth organizations, adequate solution of urgent social problems, more precise organization of migration processes and, most importantly, strengthening of the political system, development of civil society and prevention of its social splits.
Thus, modern political technologies aimed at overthrowing certain regimes of power in the states are presented in the form of the colour revolutions. They are purposeful actions of the opposition in carrying out a coup, which are intended to demonstrate: its own legitimacy and illegitimacy of power; its power and powerlessness; support of the population and lack of such support in the government; information support (the transfer of media to the side of the opposition); international support. All the colour revolutions are developed by NATO countries (primarily the United States) and prepared in advance through so-called public diplomacy. Then they are organized according to a single general scenario aimed at violent resistance to the current political system of power, and as a result, the state seizes power peacefully.
Control questions
Self-control questions